Political junkies will thoroughly enjoy the three reads linked here.  One is Nate Silver the well known political forcaster who has gotten elections so right in 2010 and 2012.  The second and third are from Sam Wang who actually got the last election predictions more right than Nate.  For this coming November election, Nate is saying the Republicans will probably gain control of the U.S. Senate, while Sam is predicting the Democrats will probably retain control.  And it is getting almost personal.  

For us political wonks, it is fun reading.  These guys are both very good and the opposite of TV news show pundits who predict based on what their network wants them to say.  Nate started the personal criticism with an early morning post yesterday that faulted Sam's methods.  Nate's post is too long for most of us to carefully read.  Sam responded later in the morning with a brief post and expanded with a still easily read post this morning.  

Nate's original post early morning Sep 17

Sam's reply late morning.

Sam's expanded reply on Sep 18

The control of the U.S. Senate in the next two years is the most important election issue in the United States.  It may determine, for many years to come, how the Supreme Court rules on Hobby Lobby, Citizens United and women's ability to control their own bodies.  It will also seriously impact how President Obama's last two years will play out.  So watching Nate and Sam crank up a duel on how to read polls and calculate probabilities is serious as well as fun.  For some of us.