Twenty years ago my wife and I went to Yellowstone National Park for our honeymoon. It was the middle of June, about the time the forest fires started. By September over 2/3rds of Yellowstone had burned. For decades the forest policy was to put out fires, after all, no one wanted to see burned trees and everyone felt that fire was bad. We learned from that experience that forest fires are good; they clear ground cover, promote biodiversity, and now 20 years later we were in the same area and everything is in the late stages of recovery. We learned a valuable lesson in Yellowstone, the laws of nature our powerful and despite all efforts to try to protect forests from fire, nature insists on having them to protect the ecosystems. After Yellowstone burned we changed our policies and mindset and realized that fires are good and let them burn with an eye to make sure they do not get too out of control.

In the last 30 years we have had a grand total of 5 quarters of recession. This is unprecedented growth. After the problems in the 70’s, government decided to never let it happen again and started playing with the money system to make sure the inflation and unemployment were held in check, while GDP always increased. Like the forest, our economy also needs the occasional cleansing. Recession are painful, but they keep greed in check, allow people to retrain for jobs or get a fresh start, and are a constant reminder to keep one eye out for future trouble. Over the last 30 years we have built up inefficiencies in government and business, families are complacent thinking the more debt will never hurt them. Government spending and debt now hangs over the economy like a dark cloud. Without the small forest fires called recessions, we have accumulated massive amounts of economic undergrowth and timber ready to burn. Maybe we are about to hit our economic Yellowstone, maybe not, but just like nature is governed by laws that men/women cannot ultimately control, so is our economic system.

How did we get in this position? It is not really anyone’s fault; we ended up in a negative feedback loop. Politicians from both parties promised constant growth and prosperity. Citizens responded to the growth by demanding more, which the politicians gladly complied with. The longer it went the more citizens got complacent and the more politicians promised. Alan Greenspan did a masterful job of figuring out all of the right moves to make it appear we had solved the economic paradox of feast or famine, even if they were short-term fixes. Maybe we have learned our economic lessons and maybe our mindset will change and we will be more patient with economic downturns, realizing the ultimate benefits they provide. Or, maybe the politicians will keep making promises they cannot keep, and the citizens will continue to believe them, all while Yellowstone burns.