The Numbers Gamesmanship
The Numbers Gamesmanship
Discussing the competing visions for population growth in Whatcom Co
Discussing the competing visions for population growth in Whatcom County and its cities and towns, though all praise was faint, that publication suggests that the growth lobby's numbers more closely approximate the growth that has actually occurred these past twenty years and leaves us with the further suggestion, they could be right.
By contrast, a recommendation that the prudent course would be to anticipate a very low number of new residents, and then monitor and adjust as needed, is described as the vision of those who would promote “tight, dense cities.” Now who doesn't want to live in a tight, dense city?
And in the indigestible opinion of the Weekly, there's nary a shred of evidence to support the position that the real estate bubble has burst (and taken the entire banking sector with it) ending an era of exaggerated construction driven by promoters and bankers skilled in the use of smoke and mirrors. A craft some in the ownership of the paper certainly understand.
We are told that this turn of events, with the associated job losses, foreclosures, and economic ruin could as easily mean an influx of new residents to our community from wrecked industrial and financial centers. Like during the Great Depression, caravans of families unshackled from their communities, homes and mortgages, are suddenly mobile and free to come to Whatcom County and buy a new house.
What are they smokin' up there in the heart of Cascadia? If caravans of immigrants begin arriving, they will more likely be living in tent cities and under bridges. Really! A depression isn't going to be any fun, and the displaced aren't going to have the money to reliably pay rent let alone buy a house.
The prudence of the Futurewise recommendation might be buttressed by thoughtful consideration of the possibility that we could as easily see an actual decrease in population here as construction jobs, that have constituted a substantial part of local employment, disappear and the workers with them.
As tax revenues tank and financially stressed homeowners balk at the ever increasing burden of supporting bloated city and county payrolls and benefits, will laid off employees be re-employed or will they be joining “the wagon train for Elsewhere?”
And the stream of retirees who have come may soon dry up as retirement becomes a distant dream, and flipping that house in California leaves the sellers searching for the money to pay the remainder of their mortgage.
It's understandable that companies in the development business are in denial, and hope to keep on with the rezones and leverage that have made them look so good on paper. Sorry, but it's reality sandwich time, and the fare is not going to be very tasty.
Mr. Johnson's commentary was, as usual, highly nuanced, and as usual, he skillfully put the message between the lines. As always his prose is a joy, and entertaining to read. But the Voice of Cascadia would be well served to avoid subjects where his conflicting loyalties cause him to abuse his fans.
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