A Venue for Citizen Journalists
Thanks to generous donations from readers, this site is renovated and improved.
Affordability has been a ruse for creating market rate housing.
Represent Us and Our Interests. Please!
Local action in support of a proposal to rebuild nationwide infrastructure
Who’s Superman when you need him? We are.
From Musk’s big investment all the way to local campaigns, political “contributions” will be re-paid. Here’s how.
Private banks are fighting hard to keep us from starting our own state bank. There’s a reason.
To be so manifestly unqualified and yet not be deeply aware of that speaks exactly to the very point of not being qualified.
Chaos likely to ensue. Catastrophe cannot be ruled out.
There is no escape from the deep-throated roar and the clouds of filth produced by these machines.
A perspective from a very old liberal political junkie.
Deeds, not talk, count on Veterans Day
Several days ago, I received the following from Veterans Service Officer (VSO), Liz Witowski, of the Whatcom County Veterans Program (items below in bold are mine). On this Veterans Day, the
An off-budget $5 Trillion National Infrastructure Bank (NIB), along the lines of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) that operated between 1932-1957, means low-cost loans and no additions to the deficit.
Medicare Advantage is NOT Medicare. Medicare is there to provide health care. Medicare Advantage is a business, there to make money.
David Swanson verifies what Jon Humphrey has said for years: good internet access benefits people, cities, counties, and states.
Or perhaps tragic farce or farcical tragedy might be more apt descriptors. Pick one, or both.
After nearly 30 years online, and literally being one of the oldest blogs on the internet, Northwest Citizen needs a major programming overhaul. To do so, we need your help.
The top 20% of commercial banks in the United States control 95% of our total banking assets. Remember “Too-Big-to-Fail”?
The City has created another useless document ensuring nothing changes and mediocre communication services are protected.
Why a vote for Jason Call for Congress is a good vote for conservatives, liberals, Democrats and Republicans. Yes, an unusual idea.
Heaven forbid our reps should attack the main problem, Medicare Advantage, head on. But no. They must nibble around the edges to give the appearance of doing something.
Morally significant double binds force doctors and combat soldiers into identical life and death quandaries, damaging their moral centers. To these two groups we can also add law enforcement officers.
Eric Hirst gives us a brief and clear explanation of the water adjudication process that is beginning now in Whatcom County
“Citing the nonpartisan Medicare Payment Advisory Commission, the paper  [Less Care at Higher Cost—The Medicare Advantage Paradox] notes that Medicare Advantage (MA) plans have overcharged the
Aggressive citizen involvement carried the day.
Build-for-profit, incarceration-inspired housing is destroying our souls.
A 54-photo tour of the ruptured pipe area of the Whatcom Creek explosion taken in July 1999.
The last of the scrap metal is loaded on the ship and it will be gone from our town.
Below is an audio tape of 911 calls, emergency responders’ radio communications, and local radio coverage from June 10, 1999 when Whatcom Creek exploded in Bellingham
Whatcom County’s confusing water rights will be defined by court proceedings beginning now
The foam of secrecy hides all.
If not killed-in-action, they are still dying from the effects of their service in Vietnam.
Local presentations scheduled on a reasonable use framework for water resource management
Broadband-Washing: Greenwashing the Internet
Pacific Northwest organizers join a global campaign to abolish all nukes and push for a city council resolution to start
If the hospitals are smelling a rat, so should Medicare (Dis)Advantage victims (AKA enrollees).
With such a bank in place, we would likely not be scrambling around and asking Congress for rebuild monies, as we are now with the catastrophic event involving the Francis Scott Key bridge on March 26, 2024.
Port of Bellingham commissioners terminate last 13 years of ABC Recycling lease
No public fiber means we can’t compete with big telecom. EVER.

Revisiting the Estimation of Unconfirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Whatcom County

Image courtesy of CDC

Image courtesy of CDC
Image courtesy of CDC

Revisiting the Estimation of Unconfirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Whatcom County

Revisiting the Estimation of Unconfirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Whatcom County

Authors find that their method produces estimates of unconfirmed cases consistent with an announcement by the CDC that there are ten times more cases than reported.

[Co-author of this article is Ronald E. Cossman, Ph.D., a Research Professor and Research Fellow at the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. He also directs the Mississippi Center for Healthcare Workforce. His work focuses on the intersection of socioeconomic factors, geography and health in Mississippi, the South and the nation. His work has been funded by NIH, HHS, EPA, the Annie E. Casey Foundation and the Mississippi Department of Health. His PhD is in geography from the University of Colorado, Boulder, and his Masters is in Demography and Population Studies from Florida State University.]

In an NWC story that appeared on April 14th and used a total confirmed Covid-19 case count of 263, we described a method and data that we used to arrive at an estimated 1,973 people in Whatcom County who were unconfirmed, but COVID-19 positive. Using this as point of departure, we then refined the method, wrote it up in an academic paper and submitted the paper to a public health journal, where it is still under review.

Employing the refined method, we compare our estimate of unconfirmed Covid-19 cases as April 24th to an estimate based on a statement made on June 24th by Dr. Robert Redfield, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, that evidence suggests there are ten times more cases than reported. Unlike many statements coming out from the current administration, this one was based on science. In this case, serology tests. As such, it is believed at this point that the “ten-fold” multiplier yields an accurate estimate of unconfirmed cases, a “gold-standard,” if you will for this point in time.

As of April 24th, there were 284 total reported cases and 257 reported active cases for Whatcom County. So, using the ten-fold multiplier, we would have expected 2,840 total cases and 2,570 active cases in Whatcom County, Washington as of April 24th. In our academic paper, available at Researchgate as a “preprint” under the “Publications” section, we estimated that there were 2,670 total cases unconfirmed cases with a 95% confidence interval from 2,025 to 3,936. As you can see, the 2,840 number falls well within the 95% confidence interval and is only 6.37 percent higher than our estimate. In terms of active cases, the ten-fold multiplier yields an estimate of 2,570 “active” cases as of April 24th for Whatcom County, Washington, which is well within the 95% confidence interval, 1,832 to 3,559 and, as found earlier for total cases, only 6.37 percent higher than our estimate of 2,416.

The less-refined method we described in the NWC article of April 14th is reasonable, but not as accurate as the more refined one. It basically multiplies the number of reported cases by 7.5. Using this multiplier with the 284 total confirmed cases reported for April 24th yields an estimated 2,130 unconfirmed total cases. The ten-fold estimate of 2,840 is 33 percent higher as would be the case if we applied this multiplier to the number of active cases.

Our academic paper benefited from informal peer reviews before we submitted it to a peer-reviewed journal. The fact that the method we describe in it provides estimates quite close to that expected under the current “gold standard” is a testament to the value of the norms used in scientific studies, particularly, objective peer reviews. Accordingly, as time goes by and new evidence emerges, these estimates will surely themselves become more refined, a testament to the value of the scientific method.



- Commenting is closed -

Revisiting the Estimation of Unconfirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Whatcom County

Image courtesy of CDC

Image courtesy of CDC
Image courtesy of CDC

Revisiting the Estimation of Unconfirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Whatcom County

Revisiting the Estimation of Unconfirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Whatcom County

Authors find that their method produces estimates of unconfirmed cases consistent with an announcement by the CDC that there are ten times more cases than reported.

[Co-author of this article is Ronald E. Cossman, Ph.D., a Research Professor and Research Fellow at the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. He also directs the Mississippi Center for Healthcare Workforce. His work focuses on the intersection of socioeconomic factors, geography and health in Mississippi, the South and the nation. His work has been funded by NIH, HHS, EPA, the Annie E. Casey Foundation and the Mississippi Department of Health. His PhD is in geography from the University of Colorado, Boulder, and his Masters is in Demography and Population Studies from Florida State University.]

In an NWC story that appeared on April 14th and used a total confirmed Covid-19 case count of 263, we described a method and data that we used to arrive at an estimated 1,973 people in Whatcom County who were unconfirmed, but COVID-19 positive. Using this as point of departure, we then refined the method, wrote it up in an academic paper and submitted the paper to a public health journal, where it is still under review.

Employing the refined method, we compare our estimate of unconfirmed Covid-19 cases as April 24th to an estimate based on a statement made on June 24th by Dr. Robert Redfield, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, that evidence suggests there are ten times more cases than reported. Unlike many statements coming out from the current administration, this one was based on science. In this case, serology tests. As such, it is believed at this point that the “ten-fold” multiplier yields an accurate estimate of unconfirmed cases, a “gold-standard,” if you will for this point in time.

As of April 24th, there were 284 total reported cases and 257 reported active cases for Whatcom County. So, using the ten-fold multiplier, we would have expected 2,840 total cases and 2,570 active cases in Whatcom County, Washington as of April 24th. In our academic paper, available at Researchgate as a “preprint” under the “Publications” section, we estimated that there were 2,670 total cases unconfirmed cases with a 95% confidence interval from 2,025 to 3,936. As you can see, the 2,840 number falls well within the 95% confidence interval and is only 6.37 percent higher than our estimate. In terms of active cases, the ten-fold multiplier yields an estimate of 2,570 “active” cases as of April 24th for Whatcom County, Washington, which is well within the 95% confidence interval, 1,832 to 3,559 and, as found earlier for total cases, only 6.37 percent higher than our estimate of 2,416.

The less-refined method we described in the NWC article of April 14th is reasonable, but not as accurate as the more refined one. It basically multiplies the number of reported cases by 7.5. Using this multiplier with the 284 total confirmed cases reported for April 24th yields an estimated 2,130 unconfirmed total cases. The ten-fold estimate of 2,840 is 33 percent higher as would be the case if we applied this multiplier to the number of active cases.

Our academic paper benefited from informal peer reviews before we submitted it to a peer-reviewed journal. The fact that the method we describe in it provides estimates quite close to that expected under the current “gold standard” is a testament to the value of the norms used in scientific studies, particularly, objective peer reviews. Accordingly, as time goes by and new evidence emerges, these estimates will surely themselves become more refined, a testament to the value of the scientific method.



- Commenting is closed -
A Venue for Citizen Journalists
Thanks to generous donations from readers, this site is renovated and improved.
Affordability has been a ruse for creating market rate housing.
Represent Us and Our Interests. Please!
Local action in support of a proposal to rebuild nationwide infrastructure
Who’s Superman when you need him? We are.
From Musk’s big investment all the way to local campaigns, political “contributions” will be re-paid. Here’s how.
Private banks are fighting hard to keep us from starting our own state bank. There’s a reason.
To be so manifestly unqualified and yet not be deeply aware of that speaks exactly to the very point of not being qualified.
Chaos likely to ensue. Catastrophe cannot be ruled out.
There is no escape from the deep-throated roar and the clouds of filth produced by these machines.
A perspective from a very old liberal political junkie.
Deeds, not talk, count on Veterans Day
Several days ago, I received the following from Veterans Service Officer (VSO), Liz Witowski, of the Whatcom County Veterans Program (items below in bold are mine). On this Veterans Day, the
An off-budget $5 Trillion National Infrastructure Bank (NIB), along the lines of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) that operated between 1932-1957, means low-cost loans and no additions to the deficit.
Medicare Advantage is NOT Medicare. Medicare is there to provide health care. Medicare Advantage is a business, there to make money.
David Swanson verifies what Jon Humphrey has said for years: good internet access benefits people, cities, counties, and states.
Or perhaps tragic farce or farcical tragedy might be more apt descriptors. Pick one, or both.
After nearly 30 years online, and literally being one of the oldest blogs on the internet, Northwest Citizen needs a major programming overhaul. To do so, we need your help.
The top 20% of commercial banks in the United States control 95% of our total banking assets. Remember “Too-Big-to-Fail”?
The City has created another useless document ensuring nothing changes and mediocre communication services are protected.
Why a vote for Jason Call for Congress is a good vote for conservatives, liberals, Democrats and Republicans. Yes, an unusual idea.
Heaven forbid our reps should attack the main problem, Medicare Advantage, head on. But no. They must nibble around the edges to give the appearance of doing something.
Morally significant double binds force doctors and combat soldiers into identical life and death quandaries, damaging their moral centers. To these two groups we can also add law enforcement officers.
Eric Hirst gives us a brief and clear explanation of the water adjudication process that is beginning now in Whatcom County
“Citing the nonpartisan Medicare Payment Advisory Commission, the paper  [Less Care at Higher Cost—The Medicare Advantage Paradox] notes that Medicare Advantage (MA) plans have overcharged the
Aggressive citizen involvement carried the day.
Build-for-profit, incarceration-inspired housing is destroying our souls.
A 54-photo tour of the ruptured pipe area of the Whatcom Creek explosion taken in July 1999.
The last of the scrap metal is loaded on the ship and it will be gone from our town.
Below is an audio tape of 911 calls, emergency responders’ radio communications, and local radio coverage from June 10, 1999 when Whatcom Creek exploded in Bellingham
Whatcom County’s confusing water rights will be defined by court proceedings beginning now
The foam of secrecy hides all.
If not killed-in-action, they are still dying from the effects of their service in Vietnam.
Local presentations scheduled on a reasonable use framework for water resource management
Broadband-Washing: Greenwashing the Internet
Pacific Northwest organizers join a global campaign to abolish all nukes and push for a city council resolution to start
If the hospitals are smelling a rat, so should Medicare (Dis)Advantage victims (AKA enrollees).
With such a bank in place, we would likely not be scrambling around and asking Congress for rebuild monies, as we are now with the catastrophic event involving the Francis Scott Key bridge on March 26, 2024.
Port of Bellingham commissioners terminate last 13 years of ABC Recycling lease
No public fiber means we can’t compete with big telecom. EVER.