With only 38,000 ballots counted and 20,000 left to count on Whatcom County issues, we are too early to know some election results. Last night on KGMI, Charlie Crabtree and I predicted a shift to the right as we go toward Friday - and that is the historical standard. But, on second thought this morning, this election has some unusual matchups and we may be surprised.

A note on votes left to count. The numbers as posted by the auditor are confusing to me. They show 38,000 votes counted with 20,000 left - and yet, on the auditor's webpage it shows a total of 47,000 ballots received - which would suggest 9,000 votes left to count. The balance is no doubt an estimate that another 11,000 votes will be received over the next couple days. But that should be made more clear. The auditor's office has generally counted 4,000 to 6,000 votes a day, given the size of the election counting staff. Thus, at the end of today, Wednesday, we may see a tally of around 44,000 - and if another 5,000 come in today, then that will leave still 8,000 uncounted going into Thursday.

The point of all this is, we simply will not know results for sure until Friday afternoon. Close races, in the county especially, can change.

While trying hard not to guess, here is some thinking, and I open this to others for their perspectives.

County: Jack Louws has a 7% lead over Doug Ericksen and should hold an edge. This is only a 2,550 vote difference, and in the 20,000 left to count, would require an almost 8% shift in voting pattern to change the election. Not going to happen.

Sam Crawford should see his 500 vote margin over Christina Maginnis increase by Friday. But this race will be a real test of whether there is a conservative swing, with Sam very conservative and Christina very liberal. As of 8 p.m. Tuesday, Sam has 17,661 to her 17,160.

Then there is Kremen with 18,539 votes to Larson's 17,479 - a 1,050 vote difference. Here, a conservative shift could put Tony Larson as the winner by Friday. This is the race most likely to switch with late counts. This race had, by far, the highest voter interest with 36,018 votes cast for one or the other. The county executive race drew 35,914 - only 96 votes less - but we would expect the executive race to garner many more votes than any council race. So, 20,000 more votes could easily swing this.

In the city, Kelli Linville has a less than 3% lead over Dan Pike. On the radio last night,Dan predicted he would win. I just do not see this race shifting. There is no late conservative shift in the city by historical standards. And only 8,000 to 10,000 more votes will be counted, giving any city shift much less chance than a county shift. The size of this margin could go either way, but I think Kelli is solid as our next mayor. 

For political junkies this election has had a lot of interest. We had conservative vs conservative for county executive and moderate vs moderate for Bellingham mayor. How much did the red-light camera issue hurt Dan Pike? I think it was the deciding factor. On the radio last night I asked him and he didn't think it was much of a factor. I think he is in denial. 65% of city residents voted against the red-light cameras. He championed that project.

Over the next week, we have three articles for posting on the red-light camera issue. Now that voters have spoken, we need to give the city council the courage to break the contract.