[Co-Author of this article is Jeff Tayman, who earned his Ph.D. in Population Studies at Florida State University and retired as the Director of Research at the San Diego Association of Governments.]

In the 2006 movie, Children of Men, (based on the 1992 P. D. James book of the same name), male sperm counts have dropped so low that births worldwide have ended. This dystopian movie is set in England 20 years after the end of all human births, where a semblance of civil order remains. At the same time, other complex societies worldwide have already collapsed or are well into the process of collapse.

While it is unlikely that we will see an end to human births in our lifetimes, it is not beyond the realm of possibility. Research indicates that male sperm counts are low worldwide  (7 % of all males are infertile), and the trend is further downward. Taken in conjunction with current low levels of birth rates due to the high cost of raising children, lower fertility, and cultural changes that empower women to make their own reproductive decisions, fertility is already below the level needed to sustain populations in complex societies around the world.

In this article, we explore the effects of the unlikely but illustrative scenario that births worldwide end in 2024, using Whatcom County as an example and then comparing it to the world as a whole.

As of 2024, the Washington State Office of Financial Management estimated the population of Whatcom County was 226,300. Using current life expectancy and migration rates, if births came to an end in 2024, there would be nobody in Whatcom County under the age of 20 by 2044, at which time its total population would be 193,603; by 2084, there would be nobody under the age of 60 and the total population would be 52,609; then by 2124, there would be nobody under the age of 85 and the total county population would be 465 and by 2154 all of them would likely be gone

These numbers only consider survivorship probabilities, migration rates, and the changes expected in age groups when no births occur. But suppose one considers the absence of working-age people and the accompanying collapse of social and health services, as well as the economy as a whole. In that case, the “survivor” numbers would likely be smaller, particularly after 2084, when there would be virtually no one under 60 available to help support those age` 60 and over. Further, many of those over 60 would have difficulty supporting themselves, much less assisting in the support of others—a societal collapse situation similar to “Lord of the Flies,” but with old people. So realistically, considering the collapse of the family, social and health services, and the economy, the population of Whatcom County would essentially be gone − along with the population of the rest of the world − by the end of the century, 75 years from now.

This is one idea of what the doomsday scenario could look like; but what about the much more realistic one: continued fertility levels below the level needed to sustain the population; again, let’s use Whatcom County as an example.

A previous article in Northwest Citizen shows that Whatcom County’s “total fertility rate” (TFR) was 1.63 in 2009 and has dropped to 1.55 in 2020. A TFR rate approximates the average number of births a woman would have over a lifetime. Demographers generally view a TFR of 2.1 as the minimum needed to sustain a population. Absent in-migration, anything less than a TFR of 2.1 indicates that a population will eventually die out.

Extrapolating the change in Whatcom County’s TFR from 2009 to 2020 out to 2124, we expect the average TFR over this period will be 1.22. If we apply this to the County’s current population and assume that the current patterns of migration and mortality stay constant, in 100 years, the County’s population will have fallen to 33,345. If births continue at a constant TFR of 1.22, the County’s population will hit 12,874 in 2144. By 2224 Whatcom County’s population will be virtually gone.

Turning to the world as a whole, Henry Gee , a British paleontologist, evolutionary biologist, and senior editor of the scientific journal Nature, postulates that Homo sapiens will be extinct in about 10,000 years. We believe this is an optimistic view of the time our species has left. His view is based on many factors including: the empowerment of women and the advancement of contraceptive technology; the cost of having and raising children; the lack of genetic diversity in our species; climate change; our dominance of the world’s natural economy; our dependence on a narrow range of plant-based food; and the evolutionary record, which shows that of the many varieties of bipedal hominids only one remains, us. Putting all this together, Gee argues that our species reached its peak in the 1960s and, like the Roman Empire, it is now on the path of decline and eventual fall.

If we look at our scenario that births ended worldwide in 2024, but we expand it to the Census Bureau’s current estimate of the world population, approximately 8.1 billion people, by 2044 there would be nobody in the world under the age of 20 and its total population would be down to 6.54 billion; by 2064, there would be nobody under the age of 40 and earth’s population would be down to 4.52 billion; by 2084, nobody under 60, with a total of 2.29 billion; and by 2124, the minimum age would be 85 and there would only be 29 million people left, unfortunately, they will all be 85 or older. By 2154, virtually everyone would be gone. These results, using a different data source and method, are consistent with what we found for Whatcom County, particularly in that the extinction year projected for the world as a whole is approximately the same as the year projected for Whatcom County if births go to zero immediately. And, as is the case for Whatcom County, after 2084, when there would be virtually no one under 60 available to help support those age 60 and over, the population of the world would essentially be gone by the end of the century, 75 years from now.

Continuing on a more realistic path for the world as a whole, when we apply the trend found in the dramatic drop in fertility found for the world between 2019 and 2024 (instead of having births at zero in 2025) and employ the same approach to the same 2019 and 2024 world population data, we find that Homo sapiens will without question be completely extinct in 380 years and effectively extinct much sooner due to the fragmented nature of the surviving members and their age structure – the old-age “Lord of the Flies” situation. 

 

"It's All Over Now, Baby Blue"

"Why is it we still have to prove ourselves???"

"Why is it we still have to prove ourselves???"
"Why is it we still have to prove ourselves???"

While not as immediate as the zero birth scenario, the more realistic path for both Whatcom County and the world as a whole ends up at the same place: zero people. It just takes about 130 more years for the entire world to get there. Once there, life for the few who are left, in Whatcom County and/or the entire world, will likely look like the illustration of the two older women in their handmade tent being warmed by a fire they built and hoping to find a rabbit when they check their traps so they have some broth for supper.*

 

So it goes. We may follow “Bluto’s Advice” this weekend.

 

* from Two Old Women: An Alaskan Legend of Betrayal, Courage and Survival by Velma Wallis (2013)