According to an article published in the Imperial College London News, "Mathematical modelling work by Drs Michael Pickles and Marie-Claude Boily from Imperial College London estimates that decriminalising sex work could prevent up to 33 to 46 per cent of HIV infections among female sex workers (FSWs) and clients worldwide over the next decade.

The international study looked at how the legal, social, and political environments in which people who sell sex live and work – which the researchers call “structural determinants” – influences the HIV epidemic. ...(They) collected all the available data on HIV prevalence, condom use and structural determinants among sex workers, and used a mathematical model to simulate the effect of different interventions in three contrasting settings: Vancouver, Canada; Bellary, India; and Mombasa, Kenya.

The research shows that eliminating sexual violence could reduce HIV infection rates among FSWs and their clients by up to a fifth over 10 years in the settings investigated, through its immediate and sustained effect on non-condom use. In Kenya, improving access to antiretroviral therapy for FSWs and clients could prevent around 34 per cent of HIV infections among them in the next decade.

However, the study shows that decriminalisation of sex work could have the greatest effect on the course of HIV epidemics across all settings studied. Within a criminalised environment, sexual violence is prevalent and has a negative effect on condom use. It forces sex workers to work in unsafe environments that promote high-risk behaviour.  Sex workers also experience police harassment, which also increases HIV risk by forcing them to rush transactions and forgo condoms, and preventing them from reporting violence to authorities.

Deb