An Overlooked Benefit of Improved Internet Access in Whatcom County: The U.S. Census
An Overlooked Benefit of Improved Internet Access in Whatcom County: The U.S. Census
An Overlooked Benefit of Improved Internet Access in Whatcom County: The U.S. Census
[This article was co-authored by, Jeff Tayman PhD, Retired Director of Research, San Diego Association of Governments and Lecturer, Dept. of Economics, University of California San Diego. Tayman, a former surfer, received his Ph.D. from Florida State University.]
Jon Humphrey has written extensively on internet issues for Northwest Citizen. As a supplement to his work, this piece looks at the 2020 census.
The U.S. Census is mandated under the U.S. Constitution (Article I, Section 2.). Its goal is to count every person in the U.S once, only once, and in the right place. It has been conducted every 10 years since 1790. It is used to: (1) determine the number of representatives each state receives in the U.S. House of Representatives (“re-apportionment” of the U.S. House of Representatives); (2) distribute federal funds; and (3) draw legislative and other district boundaries for federal, state, and local elections.
Before 1970, census enumerators went door to door. However, by 1950, it became clear to Congress and the Census Bureau that the costs of conducting the census were becoming very high. To help contain these costs, the Census Bureau turned to “mail out/mail back” as the initial means of gathering data in the 1970 census. Census forms were mailed to households, completed by household members, and the completed forms were mailed back to the Census Bureau. By 2000, however, costs were again rising to the point that it became clear an alternative means of data collection was needed, one that would allow the Census Bureau to maintain its goal that every person be counted once, only once, and in the right place, but at a lower cost than was the case under the mail out/mail back system. In 2020, the Census turned to the Internet as the initial means of gathering data.
Not surprisingly, states with lower broadband access rates tended to be among those with the highest level of net coverage error in the 2020 census. The U.S. Census Bureau found that Mississippi, for example, had an undercount of 4.11%. It should not come as a surprise then, that Mississippi has the lowest broadband access rate among the 50 states. Compare this to Washington, which has one of the highest broadband access rates among the 50 states. Washington was not undercounted in the 2020 Census.
While Washington as a whole has a high internet self-response rate, it varies substantially among its 39 counties. Ferry County has the lowest internet response rate, at 20.1%, while King County has the highest, at 69.7%. The internet self-response was 64% in Whatcom County, which puts it in 7th place behind King County
Again, not surprisingly, the rate of household broadband access also varies among counties. In Ferry County, it is 49% (the lowest among the 39 counties,) and in King County, 86% (the highest among the 39 counties). The broadband access rate is 78% in Whatcom County, which puts it in 11th place behind King County.
The “scatterplot” below graphically shows the relationship between broadband access (the horizontal axis) and the internet self-response rate (the vertical access). Not surprisingly, the graph shows that there is a strong relationship between the broadband access rate in a county and its internet self-response rate: As a county’s broadband access rate increases, so does its internet self-response rate to the 2020 census.
In the graph below, King County is represented by the uppermost red dot in the upper right corner of the graph, (internet self-response rate = 69.7%; broadband access rate = 86%). Ferry County is represented by the lowermost red dot in the lower left corner of the graph, (internet self-response rate = 20.1%; broadband access rate = 49%). Whatcom County is identified by the red dot that is the sixth one below King County, (internet self-response rate = 64%; Broadband access rate = 78%).
Also, not surprisingly, there are factors underlying the relationship of broadband access and the internet self-response rate. Two key factors are income and the availability, including affordability, of broadband. While King County has the highest median household income, at $116,044, Ferry County ranks 37th among the state’s 39 counties with a median household income of $57,064. Whatcom County ranks 14th behind King County, with a median household income of $78,796
The scatterplot immediately below shows the relationship between median county income and each county’s broadband access rate. This scatterplot shows that as the median household income increases, so do county broadband access rate.
The next scatterplot, immediately below, shows the relationship between the percent of a county’s population that is rural and that county’s broadband access rate. The reader can see that as the rural percentage increases, the broadband access rates decrease. Ferry County, along with six other counties are classified as 100% rural, they are: Garfield, Lincoln, San Juan, Skamania, and Wahkiakum. Only 3.2% of King County’s population is rural, while 26% of Whatcom County’s population is rural. This puts Whatcom County in 27th place behind Ferry and the other six counties that are listed at 100% rural.
As these three scatterplots suggest, median household income and the percent of a county population that is rural have direct effects on the county’s internet self response rate and, importantly, indirect effects that are channeled through the broadband access rate.
Using a structural equation, I looked at direct and indirect effects on census internet self-response rates. I found that the size of a county’s rural population created a greater negative effect than the positive effect created by a higher median household income.
These findings suggest that Jon Humphrey’s assertions regarding improved broadband access would be advantageous to our county and state. With increased broadband access, Whatcom’s rural populations will have higher internet self-response rates in the 2030 census, which will result in higher census accuracy levels. In turn, the increased accuracy in these counts will affect: (1) the number of seats the state receives in the U.S. House of Representatives; (2) the amount of federal funding Washington receives, as well as how it is distributed; and (3) how legislative and district boundaries are drawn for federal, state, and local elections.
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