The Numbers Gamesmanship

Over at what some call The Syre Times, this week the editor offered up some gristle that is pretty hard to swallow.

Discussing the competing visions for population growth in Whatcom Co

Over at what some call The Syre Times, this week the editor offered up some gristle that is pretty hard to swallow.

Discussing the competing visions for population growth in Whatcom Co

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Over at what some call The Syre Times, this week the editor offered up some gristle that is pretty hard to swallow.

Discussing the competing visions for population growth in Whatcom County and its cities and towns, though all praise was faint, that publication suggests that the growth lobby's numbers more closely approximate the growth that has actually occurred these past twenty years and leaves us with the further suggestion, they could be right.

By contrast, a recommendation that the prudent course would be to anticipate a very low number of new residents, and then monitor and adjust as needed, is described as the vision of those who would promote “tight, dense cities.” Now who doesn't want to live in a tight, dense city?

And in the indigestible opinion of the Weekly, there's nary a shred of evidence to support the position that the real estate bubble has burst (and taken the entire banking sector with it) ending an era of exaggerated construction driven by promoters and bankers skilled in the use of smoke and mirrors. A craft some in the ownership of the paper certainly understand.

We are told that this turn of events, with the associated job losses, foreclosures, and economic ruin could as easily mean an influx of new residents to our community from wrecked industrial and financial centers. Like during the Great Depression, caravans of families unshackled from their communities, homes and mortgages, are suddenly mobile and free to come to Whatcom County and buy a new house.

What are they smokin' up there in the heart of Cascadia? If caravans of immigrants begin arriving, they will more likely be living in tent cities and under bridges. Really! A depression isn't going to be any fun, and the displaced aren't going to have the money to reliably pay rent let alone buy a house.

The prudence of the Futurewise recommendation might be buttressed by thoughtful consideration of the possibility that we could as easily see an actual decrease in population here as construction jobs, that have constituted a substantial part of local employment, disappear and the workers with them.

As tax revenues tank and financially stressed homeowners balk at the ever increasing burden of supporting bloated city and county payrolls and benefits, will laid off employees be re-employed or will they be joining “the wagon train for Elsewhere?”

And the stream of retirees who have come may soon dry up as retirement becomes a distant dream, and flipping that house in California leaves the sellers searching for the money to pay the remainder of their mortgage.

It's understandable that companies in the development business are in denial, and hope to keep on with the rezones and leverage that have made them look so good on paper. Sorry, but it's reality sandwich time, and the fare is not going to be very tasty.

Mr. Johnson's commentary was, as usual, highly nuanced, and as usual, he skillfully put the message between the lines. As always his prose is a joy, and entertaining to read. But the Voice of Cascadia would be well served to avoid subjects where his conflicting loyalties cause him to abuse his fans.

About g.h.kirsch

Citizen Journalist • Member since Jan 16, 2008

Comments by Readers

Larry Horowitz

Feb 14, 2009

Greg,

I agree.  Tim?s Gristle ?By the Numbers? was, as usual, highly nuanced and entertaining.  Unfortunately, Tim did not deem it worthwhile to mention the importance of ?community growth goals? in the process of adopting a population projection nor did he refer to the required ?reality check? on whether the adopted population growth could be accommodated.

As you know, the state legislature provides guidance in this arena in a chapter of the Washington Administrative Code (WAC) entitled ?Growth management act ? procedural criteria for adopting comprehensive plans and development regulations? (WAC 365-195).  In the section on ?Urban growth areas,? the state legislature instructs counties and cities to adopt ?a forecast of likely future growth? BASED ON ?community growth goals with respect to population.?  The legislature further instructs counties and cities to ?perform a check on the realism? by evaluating whether the level of population contemplated ?can be achieved within the capacity of available land and water resources and without environmental degradation? (WAC 365-195-335).

Utilizing an autocratic top-down approach, the Whatcom County Growth Management Coordinating Council (GMCC) and its Technical Advisory Group (TAG) has disregarded the community?s growth goals.  For example, the GMCC plans to allocate growth to the city of Bellingham based on the GMCC?s high-handed methodology, totally ignoring the repeated results of the city?s bi-annual survey:  ?Bellingham is growing too fast and is losing its character.?  What part of that statement do the GMCC and TAG not understand? 

Perhaps we need to simply:  Bellingham residents overwhelmingly agree.  The city is growing too fast.  Our community vision is to slow growth down.  Now that the economy has deadlined, I?m not sure there?s even an option.  Any population projection that simply extrapolates prior growth under a vastly different economic paradigm is doomed.

Theoretically, the countywide EIS will evaluate whether water resources are adequate and the extent of environmental degradation.  Caution: I did say theoretically. 

Perhaps members of Futurewise Whatcom?s Steering Committee might be interested in adding their 2 cents to this discussion.

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Bob Sanders

Feb 15, 2009

To g.h.kirsch & Tim Johnson,

How delightful to read both of you.  Graceful writing is not easy, but you guys pull it off with enormous efficacy.
It’s my hope that you will keep this most important debate going.
Meanwhile, I look forward to round 2.
Bob Sanders

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Doug Karlberg

Feb 16, 2009

I second Bob Sanders thoughts. Both writers add a lot to our community.

Clearly there has been overbuilding that has the world economy in a still spiralling downward trend, without clear sight of the bottom yet.

It is imprudent to not understand that there is going to be considerable time to arrest this spiral, and then refill the empty buildings and houses.

The “build it and they will come” theory is particularly imprudent for government to take on this speculation.

We should stand prepared to quickly meet, clear demand, but only when the demand is clear.

Speculating future populations growth, is still speculation, and I think we have had our fill of speculation. Its time to take care of the crisis’s that we have.

During the Great Depression there were wagon trains full of people moving. Always from where the jobs were, to where the new jobs were being created.

If we wish for the population to grow, then we better create good jobs, or our population can actually shrink.

It is a little arrogant to assume that the wagon trains are headed our way, instead of leaving our community for greener pastures.

Developers like government to provide a lot of prepared infrastructure for future growth and having it stand waiting. Nice conditions if you can get them. Please not with my money, under these circumstances.

We have plenty to focus on without this distraction.

This debate certainly takes the focus off job creation, which where we all should be focused.

~

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Tip Johnson

Feb 16, 2009

I like marinas because I like boats, though not especially the 40 to 60 foot yachts the Port plans to berth at their new marina.

However, if we want to create jobs, we should all think twice about turning the G-P treatment lagoon into a marina.  It’s the only facility we have that could support family wage jobs on the waterfront.  Absent its existence to receive the flows, our industrial water line from Lake Whatcom to the waterfront becomes useless. Without either, our prospects of recruiting good jobs is radically diminished.

In addition, once it is gone, there will be no place to treat polluted stormwater from our urban core - the single largest threat to the health of Puget Sound.  Expensive end-of-pipe treatment strategies that don’t work will burden the redevelopment of our economy by saddling everyone with extra costs. We will end up getting neither a healthy economy or a healthy bay.

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John Watts

Feb 18, 2009

Perhaps the writer will reconsider his criticism of Tim Johnson’s Gristle when he reads the latest version published today, which nails this issue.
As far as ‘nuances’ go, I believe the Gristle certainly has a good grasp of these, but its main thrust isn’t about nuances; its about what needs to be done to understand and resolve the appalling situation that is being strongly aided and abetted by County land use policies.

To deny that is to signal a superficial -at best- understanding of what is going on here.
GMA is not a simple process, but ought to follow simple principles, starting with policies that intermesh and complement each other, not compete and contradict as they do now.

City and County need to adopt a population number in the low middle range, providing that can be reasonably supported by history and common sense.
The City ought not to accept any more than its fair share of growth, although it may well attract more than that with its superior services and amenities, and lower taxes.
As such, this number represents a planning tool and nothing more.

The real meat of GMA planning are the policies that are adopted and consistently followed, including reasonable requirements for growth paying for most of its costs.
The City already has good mechanisms for collecting a fair portion of these costs; the County does not.
That is not a nuance, but a fact.

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g.h. kirsch

Feb 18, 2009

John,

Yes, perhaps.  But first the writer will need to get some rest.

gk

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